Possible majority coalitions
This is a remix of the same chart for last year's elections.
7 or more parties will in all likelyhood get parlimentary seats in Iceland's 2017 parlimentary elections, so it is quite challenging to understand what majority posibilities exist post-election.
What this attempts to do is show what majority coalitions are possible using latest poll data, ruling out coalitions which been rejected by the parties themselves or are obviously not going to happen. What remains indicates that forming a viable majority will be challenging.
In order to determine seats per-party a predictive model is used. National percentages, provided by kosningaspa.is, are distributed among constituencies using known historical biases. The resulting outcome is then run through a full implementation of the Icelandic election system.
The chart will continually update until the elections on the 28th of october, 2017.